Who holds the Senate

Twenty-one states. 105 counties, towns and districts. One call.

The Senate

How to read this: the big number is the favored party's chance of a Senate majority, worked out from each race's forecast with the races tied together, so a polling miss in one state carries into the others. The ring fills to the same number; the bar under it gives both parties' chances.

Races tied together

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chance Democrats take the Senate, 47% Republicans keep it

–Senate today

–to control

The House

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chance Democrats take the House

House forecast →

If every leader holds

How to read this: all 100 Senate seats, filled column by column with Democrats from the left, so the dashed line falls at the majority. Seats not on this page stay with the party that holds them; an outlined dot is a race we track, in its call's color: a party's once the forecast leans that way, gray while it is a toss-up. Hover a dot for its race.

Not up or not trackedTracked race, in its call's color

Each party needs

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Would flip

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Tipping point

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First polls close

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All twenty-one races · closest first Full board ↓

The board

Twenty-one races, each called by five places
How to read this: the big name and number are Pollitrack's call: the polling average, corrected for how that state's polls have leaned and where its early votes are coming from; on election night it follows the five bellwethers named at the foot of the card. Hover the call for how far it sits from the polls and what moved the call since the day before. The line under it says how sure the forecast is (toss-up, lean, likely or safe; hover the word for the bands) and the favorite's chance; the call, the ring and the bar take a party's color only from lean up. The bar runs from the middle (a tie) toward the leader, a full half being a 15-point lead; the gray tick is the polling average. The small line is the polling average over the last two weeks. “Would flip” means the seat changes party if today's leader wins.

Each race is called by its own bellwether places; open a card for its page.

The night

What Tuesday will feel like

When each state's polls close, and what one shared polling miss would do.

When polls close

How to read this: each row is a time the first polls close, in Eastern time, with the races that report then. Some states close a second time zone an hour later; the race pages give the details. Maine and Alaska count ranked-choice ballots, so a first count may not be the final one. The early states tell you the most: if they beat their polls, the shared miss beside this is probably real.

Eastern · Tue Nov 3

Shared polling miss

How to read this: slide to say the polls are off by the same amount in every state; each race's bar moves with it and the seat count follows. Polling errors are rarely random from state to state: the same kinds of voters get missed everywhere, so one shared miss is the likeliest way the night surprises. A race marked ⟲ has changed hands.

Polls are right · 0.0

← Republicans do better than pollsDemocrats do better →

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The House–

Behind the number

Why the number is what it is

Three ways to read the polls: over time, the national tide, and who is polling.

Every race's polls since June

Poll lead, points

HighlightUp = Democrat ahead · down = Republican ahead

Numbers as a table

Where each state's data stands

Key: Live means fetched or built today. Ready means the code is written and waiting for the data to start. Source found means we know where the data is but haven't written the code. Statewide only means the state reports one total, not by county.

Polls: each race's Wikipedia polling table, read twice a day; averages use the latest poll from each pollster in a 21-day window. 2024 presidential results: each state's official canvass. Seat count: the Senate today (47 Democrats including two independents who caucus with them, 53 Republicans); seats not shown here are assumed to stay with the party that holds them. The odds are worked out from each race's forecast with the races 60% tied together: every size of polling miss the states could share, weighted by how likely it is. News: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and each state's own news outlets, read twice a day; Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.

Every race